OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction

date: 2012-03-15


The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 summarizes the consequences of policy inaction for a wide variety of environmental issues. Based on joint modelling by the OECD and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, it looks forward to the year 2050 to find out what demographic and economic trends might mean for the environment if the world does not adopt more ambitious green policies. It also looks at what policies could change that picture for the better.

GLOBIO contribution

As part of the IMAGE modelling framework, the GLOBIO model (including aquatic systems), was used to show the consequences of the baseline scenario for biodiversity. Without new policies, a continuing decrease of biodiversity is expected, using the Mean Species Abundance indicator.

Policy options and instruments additional to the baseline are discussed in the report, amongst which:

Several of these policy options were simulated using the OECD and PBL models. Especially for the climate change options, the trade-offs between reaching climate and biodiversity targets were investigated.

Effects of different pressures on terrestrial MSA: Baseline, 2010 to 2050. Note: Infra+Encr+Frag = infrastructure, encroachment and ecosystem fragmentation. BRIICS: Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Africa. RoW: Rest of the world.