OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030

date: 2008-03-01

Report - OECD 2030

The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 provides analyses of economic and environmental trends to 2030, and simulations of policy packages to address the key environmental challenges. 

GLOBIO contribution

The GLOBIO model was used to analyse the consequences for terrestrial biodiversity of several policy packages, relative to a business-as-usual reference scenario. The packages include measures in the following areas:

The packages are implemented at different scales, reflecting the effects of joining forces between OECD countries, upcoming economies and developing countries.

In the reference scenario, biodiversity continues to decline at a relentless pace. From 73% in 2000 to 66% in 2030 and 62% in 2050 (figure 1). The major causes of the loss are agricultural land-use, expanding infrastructure and climate change (figure 2).

The 450-ppm climate change mitigation option shows the strongest biodiversity effects, as it contains far reaching measures that affect both land-use change and climate change (figure 3). This option reduces the climate change effects on biodiversity, but this positive effect is offset by increased land-use for biofuel production. If follows that only by combining climate change mitigation with increased land-use efficiency the negative effects on biodiversity can be counterbalanced.

Figure 1: Historic and future development of biodiversity

Figure 2: Global change in biodiversity per pressure factor, 2000 - 2030 baseline

Figure 3: Change in biodiversity OECD per pressure factor, 2000 - 2030